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Fools Money – Part 4

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by Thomas Sowell

One of the many words that sound so attractive, to people who do not think beyond the word, is “disarmament.”

Wouldn’t it be better to live in a world where countries were not armed to the teeth, especially when they are armed with nuclear weapons? Of course it would.

But the only country we can disarm is our own. The only countries we might be able to persuade to disarm are countries that intend no harm in the first place. Those countries that do intend to harm others– and we know all too well that they exist– would be delighted to have all their victims disarmed.

What if we can just get nuclear disarmament?

Again, we need to think beyond the word to the realities of the world, so that we do not simply accept words as what Thomas Hobbes called the money of fools.

Had there been no nuclear weapons created during World War II, that would have given an overwhelming military advantage in the postwar world to countries with large and well equipped armies. Especially after the U.S. Army withdrew from Europe, following the end of World War II, there was nothing to stop Stalin’s army from marching right across the continent to the Atlantic Ocean.

The American troops that remained in Western Europe were not enough to stop the Soviet army. But they were enough that their slaughter by the Russians would have risked nuclear war with the United States.

Continue reading . . .

Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Reactor to Start; Russia Loads Fuel

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Iranian Bushehr nuclear reactor power plant
The reactor building of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, 750 miles south of the capital Tehran. Photograph: Mehdi Ghasemi/AP

The day has finally come that the Iranian Bushehr nuclear reactor will go online, all with the aid from Russia and the fuel they will supply.

The long awaited time for Iran has been seemingly delayed for years as the plant had become a source of political tug-o-war. Russian led and financed, the project is now completed with a set start date for Aug. 21.

Plant construction began in 1974 with help from Germany, but was put on hold due the the Islamic revolution in 1979. After years passed, construction picked back up in 1995 with co-operation from Russia which, in 1998 led them to sign up to complete the facility.

With many delays, following a scheduled completion of 2007, time has come that Russia will load the reactor with fuel that will make it operational.

“This will be an irreversible step,” Sergei Novikov, a spokesman for Russia’s state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, said. “At that moment, the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be certified as a nuclear energy installation.”

“I think it is a very strong signal that international society supports such peaceful projects as Bushehr, because everybody understands that you cannot use a power plant in a hypothetical military program,” Novikov told RT. “A nuclear power plant just generates electricity. There are two double-purpose elements – enrichment and spent fuel management. Both of these elements are taken out of Iranian responsibility, because we are going to supply the Bushehr power plant with nuclear fuel.”

Iran Begins With Digging Mass Graves

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mass graves in Iran
The scene in the south of Iran where hundreds of mass graves have been dug.

Iran has begun digging mass graves in preparation for an American backed Israeli attack.

According to former Iranian General Hossein Kan’ani Moghadam in an interview with the Associated Press, the graves are located in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province.

Predictions as to Iran’s grave digging point to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the pressure he is feeling by the many sanctions placed on his country by the United Nations earlier this year. Which opens speculation to their wartime preparations.

One possibility that could lead to the use of such graves would be the idea of a ‘nuclear holocaust,’ according to former Cuban President Fidel Castro.

“If there’s an attack on Iran by Israel and the US, there’s no way to prevent it from becoming a nuclear war,” says Castro of the potential ‘worst-case scenario.’

A scenario all too ominous as there are reports of a possible strike within the next 12 months with a probability pointing to 50%.

A look deeper:

The Atlantic | The Point of No Return

For the Obama administration, the prospect of a nuclearized Iran is dismal to contemplate— it would create major new national-security challenges and crush the president’s dream of ending nuclear proliferation. But the view from Jerusalem is still more dire: a nuclearized Iran represents, among other things, a threat to Israel’s very existence. In the gap between Washington’s and Jerusalem’s views of Iran lies the question: who, if anyone, will stop Iran before it goes nuclear, and how? As Washington and Jerusalem study each other intensely, here’s an inside look at the strategic calculations on both sides—and at how, if things remain on the current course, an Israeli air strike will unfold.

Foreign Policy | The Republican Back Door to War with Iran

A game plan to draw the United States into a third war in the Middle East may be quietly unfolding before our eyes.

UN Message to Iran; More Sanctions

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Wednesday, Iran received another round of sanctions from the United Nations. But the message is pretty clear in that if they continue to do what they are doing, get ready for round five.

That’s the ignorance in this whole thing. You can argue for or against Iran and their nuclear program all you want. But one thing remains clear. They will do whatever they want. There is no changing that.

The first round of sanctions wasn’t enough, so the enactment of levels two and three were needed. However, in their wake, those weren’t enough so a new fourth round was enacted and is being dubed “the toughest sanctions ever faced.”

Islamic Republic News Agency

The president of the Islamic Republic of Iran who is visiting Tajikistan currently reacting to the passing of the 4th UN Security Council resolution against Iran based on US and its allies’ efforts, emphasized, “Those who posses the atomic bombs themselves both use and stockpile the nuclear weapons while threatening the others with them, now resort to the pretext that Iran might in the future manufacture atomic bombs and pass resolutions against us every now and then. Ahmadinejad added, “I sent a message to one of them, telling him “These resolutions that you pass resemble used napkins that need to be thrown to the garbage can.” The president emphasized, “They are not capable of inflicting any damage against the Iranian nation.” He added, “The political scene has become the scene for cheating, aggression, and expansionism, because under such conditions the ethical values, love and social relations are cast aside.

The sense of double-standard is steaming in the mouth of Ahmadinejad.

BBC

In Iran itself, editorials in the hard-line press lash out at what they see as Western double standards. In the Arabic-speaking Middle East, however, many press commentators think the sanctions are justified and adequate, although some also criticise the perceived bias in Western policy in the region.

Either way, many are still able to argue the fact that sanctions against Iran are effortless.

Foreign Policy

After a year’s worth of diplomacy, the United Nations Security Council finally passed a fourth round of Iran sanctions on Wednesday. The vote passed easily, with 12 states voting in favor and only two, Brazil and Turkey, voting against the sanctions resolution. At various points in the previous months, Barack Obama’s administration has promised that these sanctions will be “crippling,” “smart,” and “targeted.” In reality, however, the best adjective to describe the new sanctions is “ineffective.”

Obama’s Nuclear Summit

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Recapping the days events of Obama’s nuclear summit.

President Obama’s Opening Remarks

Good afternoon, everybody.  We have just concluded an enormously productive day. I said this morning that today would be an opportunity for our nations, both individually and collectively, to make concrete commitments and take tangible steps to secure nuclear materials so they never fall into the hands of terrorists who would surely use them. 

This evening, I can report that we have seized this opportunity, and because of the steps we’ve taken — as individual nations and as an international community — the American people will be safer and the world will be more secure.

I want to thank all who participated in this historic summit — 49 leaders from every region of the world.  Today’s progress was possible because these leaders came not simply to talk, but to take action; not simply to make vague pledges of future action, but to commit to meaningful steps that they are prepared to implement right now. 

I also want to thank my colleagues for the candor and cooperative spirit that they brought to the discussions.  This was not a day of long speeches or lectures on what other nations must do.  We listened to each other, with mutual respect.  We recognized that while different countries face different challenges, we have a mutual interest in securing these dangerous materials.

So today is a testament to what is possible when nations come together in a spirit of partnership to embrace our shared responsibility and confront a shared challenge.  This is how we will solve problems and advance the security of our people in the 21st century.  And this is reflected in the communiqué that we have unanimously agreed to today.

Read entire remarks HERE.

The U.S. National Statement (PDF)

The summit communiqué (PDF)

The work plan (PDF)

A fact sheet about the summit (PDF)

PDF’s courtesy of ForeignPolicy.com

The Threat of Disarming America

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“No good decision was ever made in a swivel chair.” – Gen. Patton

When you take a look at the threat level from rogue nations – N. Korea and Iran – it is alarming that the current administration would even humor the idea of backing down on its nuclear presence. However, the same energy that carried health care reform will, and has already begun to see the ill effects of current talks with nations like Russia.

As Iran prepares for an upcoming conference on nuclear disarmament, N. Korea is openly committed to furthering their nuclear status. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that they have “between one and six nuclear weapons.” In the same speech, Clinton says that “We will not unilaterally disarm. We will maintain our nuclear deterrent.” A mixed signal within the administration as Obama seems hard pressed to formulate a new nuclear weapons policy that would, in some eyes, disarm America. It is no secret that the current stockpile of nuclear weapons in America is old and technologically outdated.

”The United States is trying to say, ‘Look, let’s keep the bargain where all of the rest of the world agrees not to get nuclear weapons and to work with us to keep nuclear weapons from terrorists and other states, because we are keeping our side of the bargain. We are doing everything we can to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and reduce the number of nuclear weapons.’”

That may be what is said, but what is being heard is another story. What it says to countries like Iran and N. Korea is that we don’t want you to have nukes, and while we will still maintain our outdated weapons at a lesser level, you in turn will agree that you will not further your acquiescence of nuclear weapons. While it is easy to make accusations with a statement like that, it is in some ways beginning to take shape in that manner.

Our side of the bargainis demonstrated with the nuclear talks with Russia, in the hopes that they would take the side of the U.S. in sanctions against Iran. However, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sees things differently. Although he agreed that nations should not “turn a blind eye” to Iran’s nuclear defiance, he indicated that Russia would not support sanctions that would punish Iran’s people or encourage regime change. He told reporters in Prague, where he and Obama signed an arms control agreement on nuclear weapons, that: “Let me put it straightforward. I have outlined our limits for such sanctions.”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s outright defiance toward sanctions, has created what some are calling diplomatic foot-dragging, while he continues to take a strong stance on the direction and purpose as to Iran’s nuclear efforts. But, only time will tell after Tehran holds it’s international conference of nuclear disarmament on April 17th and 18th, where it is said that Iran “does not consider legitimate the possession of nuclear weapons and other [forms of] weapons of mass destruction by any country,” and adding that Tehran believed in a world free of such weapons.

With noise like that coming out of Tehran, it is hard to understand their stance when they make statements that, “If America makes a crazy move, its interests will be endangered by Iran’s allies around the globe.”

Change in Iranian Dictatorship

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Iran has been going through a political change. As to what extent, it is hard to say other than the fact there are some changes taking place. At the forefront is the Revolutionary Guard and how aggressive they have been at protecting and advancing the notion of a nuclear weaponized Iran. While it has been no secret, Iran is persuing nuclear weapons and they are open about their efforts and the actions they will take to achieve them.

WSJ – Iran’s Emerging Military Dictatorship

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controlled Tehran with the help of tens of thousands of club-wielding street fighters shipped in from all over the country. Opposition marchers, confined to the northern part of the city, were locked into hit-and-run battles with the regime’s professional goons. An opposition attempt at storming the Evin Prison, where more than 3,000 dissidents are being tortured, did not materialize. The would-be liberators failed to break a ring of steel the IRGC threw around the sprawling compound.

With the Internet shut down and foreign radio broadcasts jammed, the regime imposed its own version of events. State television showed large crowds chanting “Death to America” while marching in front of giant portraits of the Supreme Leader.

And yet, despite all of this, Mr. Khamenei’s message thanking the pro-regime marchers after the “glorious events of the day” had a surprisingly subdued tone. He has reason to feel unhappy.

For the first time the regime had to transform Tehran into a sealed citadel with checkpoints at all points of entry. The IRGC was in total control. Code-named “Simorgh,” after a bird in Persian mythology, its operation created an atmosphere of war in the divided city. Warned that his life may be in danger, Mr. Khamenei was forced to watch the events on TV rather than take his usual personal tour.

To ensure control of Tehran, the regime had to abandon plans for celebrations in other parts of the country. Only 20% of Iranian towns and cities and less than 9% of villages had the privilege of marking the anniversary of the revolution.

The transformation of the Khomeinist regime from theological despotism into military dictatorship started almost a decade ago. And as a keen student of Islamic tradition, Mr. Khamenei must know that history is repeating itself.

Top 5 Political Issues of 2009

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As the year comes to a close, a look back through the top five political issues of 2009 have definately sparked interest in many ways. It is not to say that these were the only issues, however this is a list of the most pressing and longest lasting issues.

5. Nuclear Iran

Iran has been, for many years, trying to obtain enough nuclear material to produce their own nuclear weapons. 2009 has proven to be a monumental year for Iran. They were secretly operating in a facility rapidly producing material at an alarming rate. Also, they got enough international interest that brought the most powerful nations together to attempt to bring an end to their nuclear weapon wishes.

4. Government Spending

As a roll-over issue from last year, the amount of government spending has definately been increased under the watchless eye of the Obama administration. In just one year, this administration has tripled the defecit with programs like TARP, stimulus packages and bank and business bailouts. The other side to this horendous spending spree, is that most all of it was financed and backed by China.

1. (3 way tie) Afghanistan War

At the very start of Obama’s presidency, he took a strong stance on the war in Afghanistan. With an initial strategy that wasn’t, he asked his hand-picked general, Gen. McChrystal, to give prepare an assessment. An assessment that was soon leaked to the media. Wasting time deciding on a direction, Obama finally announced that he would send a surge of troops and that the mission would be completed by 2011. This sparked a buzz among some that the troop surge was purely political, being that troops would be victoriously coming home in the middle of the 2012 elections.

1. (3 way tie) Health Care Reform

Among one of the most talked about items during the election was health care reform. Obama has now stated that this is something he wants passed by Christmas, a date that has been continuously pushed back as it faces more and more opposition. Opposition now coming from both sides of the isles. With a government take-over of an industry amounting to one-sixth of the economy, and a price tag in the trillions, health care reform is something talked about by mostly every American.

1. (3 way tie) Global Climate Change

The most highly talked about international issue at the close of 2009 is climate change. An industry built on manipulated science. Pending legislation being built on the same science has proved to be a costly change that many Americans are not willing to accept. At what point will action be taken to truely investigate and study the climate, without falsifying the numbers?

Certainly, the year has brought many issues. Some more pressing than others, and for the most part will be a deciding factor for 2010 also.

Clinton Says Offer To Iran Will Not Change

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Tensions, to say the least, have escalated recently as U.S. Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton tells Iran that there will be no changes to the offer placed before them about their nuclear program. This is the same proposal that was introduced as they agreed to in principle at earlier talks.

VOA News – Clinton: Nuclear Offer to Iran Will Not Change

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says there will be no changes to an international offer to end the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program by having its low-grade uranium processed and enriched abroad. That proposal is still being considered by the government in Tehran.

Secretary of State Clinton says it is time for Iran to accept the U.N-backed nuclear fuel deal. “This is a pivotal moment for Iran. Acceptance fully of this proposal which we have put forth and which we are unified behind would be a good indication that Iran does not wish to be isolated and does wish to cooperate with the international community and fulfill their international responsibilities,” she said.

While the International Atomic Energy Agency remains in contact with Iran to answer its questions about the agreement, Clinton says the United States, Russia, France, China, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union will not accept any modifications to its terms.

“We urge Iran to accept the agreement as proposed. Because we are not altering it. It is the proposal that they agreed to in principal, so that we can move forward and work with Iran on a full range of issues including, but not limited to, their nuclear program,” she said.

Trust Key Issue As Iran Rejects Proposal

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Iran rejected a U.N. backed plan Saturday in what seems to be a lack of trust among nations. Iran has repeatedly said they want to keep their uranium, but be allowed to buy a more premium level of uranium. They have also repeatedly stated their purposes for their nuclear ambitions, however it is speculated that they want it for the sole purpose to arm and protect their country with nuclear weapons. The trust factor plays a big part in these new deals.

Fox News – Iran Lawmakers Reject U.N.-Drafted Uranium Plan

The U.N.-brokered plan requires Iran to send 1.2 tons of low-enriched uranium — around 70 percent of its stockpile — to Russia in one batch by the end of the year, easing concerns the material would be used for a bomb.

After further enrichment in Russia, France would convert the uranium into fuel rods that would be returned to Iran for use in a reactor in Tehran that produces medical isotopes.

Iran has indicated that it may agree to send only “part” of its stockpile in several shipments. Should the talks fail to help Iran obtain the fuel from abroad, Iran has threatened to enrich uranium to the higher level needed to power the research reactor itself domestically.

The Tehran reactor needs uranium enriched to about 20 percent, higher than the 3.5 percent-enriched uranium Iran is producing for a nuclear power plant it plans to build in southwestern Iran. Enriching uranium to even higher levels can produce weapons-grade materials.

“We are totally opposed to the proposal to send 3.5 percent enriched uranium in return for 20 percent enriched fuel,” senior lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi was quoted by the semiofficial ISNA news agency as saying.

Boroujerdi, who heads the parliament’s National Security Committee, said the priority for Iran was to buy nuclear fuel and hold on to its own uranium. He also said there was no guarantee that Russia or France will keep to the deal and supply nuclear fuel to Iran if Tehran ships them its enriched uranium.

“The preferred option is to buy fuel … there is no guarantee that they will give us fuel … in return for enriched uranium. We can’t trust the West,” ISNA quoted Boroujerdi as saying.

Kazem Jalali, another senior lawmaker, said Iran wants nuclear fuel first before agreeing to ship its enriched uranium stocks to Russia and France even if it decides to strike a deal.

“They need to deliver nuclear fuel to Iran first … the West is not trustworthy,” the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying.