The Stafford Voice

Our little place to talk about and share about life.

Ahmadinejad

Power Struggle in Iran Between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad

by

NYTimes | The unprecedented power struggle between the two most powerful leaders in Iran deepened Friday, spilling out into Tehran’s public prayers where the mullah leading the service indirectly criticized President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad while the crowd chanted “Death to opponents of the supreme leader!”

Iranian Leaders Khamenei and Ahmadinejad
Iranian Leaders Khamenei and Ahmadinejad - Reuters Photo

The split started about two weeks ago after the president tried to dismiss the head of the intelligence ministry, the powerful government branch that exerts widespread control over domestic life. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, ordered that the minister, Heydar Moslehi, keep the post.

Mr. Ahmadinejad then stayed home for 11 days, according to reports from Iran, engaging in a visible fit of pique that threatened to undermine the staunch alliance the two had forged since Mr. Ahmadinejad was first elected president in 2005.

The spat dragged into the open several factional fights, analysts said, particularly the efforts by Mr. Ahmadinejad’s conservative opponents to prevent his faction from dominating the parliamentary elections next March and even the presidential vote in 2013.

Even before the chants at Friday Prayer, a signature event since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, important conservative factions had pronounced their support for the supreme leader, including the government’s primary enforcers, the Revolutionary Guards. Ayatollah Khamenei’s infallibility was the subject of Friday Prayer in at least half a dozen large cities besides Tehran, according to media reports.

“It is quite astounding in a way where on a daily basis people are coming out and saying that Khamenei has the constitutional right and the religious right to do what he wants to do,” said Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii. “Ahmadinejad has effectively lost the support of the base. If you do not have the support of Khamenei, you are nobody.”

Under Iranian law, the president has the right to hire and fire cabinet ministers, Iran experts said. But the supreme leader, as the title suggests, is the nation’s ultimate authority.

MORE

Iran Begins With Digging Mass Graves

by

mass graves in Iran
The scene in the south of Iran where hundreds of mass graves have been dug.

Iran has begun digging mass graves in preparation for an American backed Israeli attack.

According to former Iranian General Hossein Kan’ani Moghadam in an interview with the Associated Press, the graves are located in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province.

Predictions as to Iran’s grave digging point to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the pressure he is feeling by the many sanctions placed on his country by the United Nations earlier this year. Which opens speculation to their wartime preparations.

One possibility that could lead to the use of such graves would be the idea of a ‘nuclear holocaust,’ according to former Cuban President Fidel Castro.

“If there’s an attack on Iran by Israel and the US, there’s no way to prevent it from becoming a nuclear war,” says Castro of the potential ‘worst-case scenario.’

A scenario all too ominous as there are reports of a possible strike within the next 12 months with a probability pointing to 50%.

A look deeper:

The Atlantic | The Point of No Return

For the Obama administration, the prospect of a nuclearized Iran is dismal to contemplate— it would create major new national-security challenges and crush the president’s dream of ending nuclear proliferation. But the view from Jerusalem is still more dire: a nuclearized Iran represents, among other things, a threat to Israel’s very existence. In the gap between Washington’s and Jerusalem’s views of Iran lies the question: who, if anyone, will stop Iran before it goes nuclear, and how? As Washington and Jerusalem study each other intensely, here’s an inside look at the strategic calculations on both sides—and at how, if things remain on the current course, an Israeli air strike will unfold.

Foreign Policy | The Republican Back Door to War with Iran

A game plan to draw the United States into a third war in the Middle East may be quietly unfolding before our eyes.

UN Message to Iran; More Sanctions

by

Wednesday, Iran received another round of sanctions from the United Nations. But the message is pretty clear in that if they continue to do what they are doing, get ready for round five.

That’s the ignorance in this whole thing. You can argue for or against Iran and their nuclear program all you want. But one thing remains clear. They will do whatever they want. There is no changing that.

The first round of sanctions wasn’t enough, so the enactment of levels two and three were needed. However, in their wake, those weren’t enough so a new fourth round was enacted and is being dubed “the toughest sanctions ever faced.”

Islamic Republic News Agency

The president of the Islamic Republic of Iran who is visiting Tajikistan currently reacting to the passing of the 4th UN Security Council resolution against Iran based on US and its allies’ efforts, emphasized, “Those who posses the atomic bombs themselves both use and stockpile the nuclear weapons while threatening the others with them, now resort to the pretext that Iran might in the future manufacture atomic bombs and pass resolutions against us every now and then. Ahmadinejad added, “I sent a message to one of them, telling him “These resolutions that you pass resemble used napkins that need to be thrown to the garbage can.” The president emphasized, “They are not capable of inflicting any damage against the Iranian nation.” He added, “The political scene has become the scene for cheating, aggression, and expansionism, because under such conditions the ethical values, love and social relations are cast aside.

The sense of double-standard is steaming in the mouth of Ahmadinejad.

BBC

In Iran itself, editorials in the hard-line press lash out at what they see as Western double standards. In the Arabic-speaking Middle East, however, many press commentators think the sanctions are justified and adequate, although some also criticise the perceived bias in Western policy in the region.

Either way, many are still able to argue the fact that sanctions against Iran are effortless.

Foreign Policy

After a year’s worth of diplomacy, the United Nations Security Council finally passed a fourth round of Iran sanctions on Wednesday. The vote passed easily, with 12 states voting in favor and only two, Brazil and Turkey, voting against the sanctions resolution. At various points in the previous months, Barack Obama’s administration has promised that these sanctions will be “crippling,” “smart,” and “targeted.” In reality, however, the best adjective to describe the new sanctions is “ineffective.”

Russian Politics Posing Test for U.S.

by

One day before debate in the United Nations Security Council talk about posing tighter sanctions on the Iranian nuclear program, and Russia is resorting to their old political tactics.

Leaders from Iran, Turkey and Russia met and had dialogue over international cooperation that caused frustrated the United States, who would rather impose very strict and tight sanctions versus the Russian idea that the sanctions should not be ‘excessive.’

NYTimes:

“We’ve seen a lot of support from the international arena,” he said, according to the Turkey’s official Anatolian News Agency. “This is the voice of everyone’s heart.” Mr. Ahmadinejad also maintained a defiant posture toward the United States.

“If the U.S. and its allies think they could hold the stick of sanctions and then sit and negotiate with us, they are seriously mistaken,” he told a news conference, according to Iran’s state-run Press TV satellite broadcaster. European and American officials say the vote on sanctions could come as early as Wednesday.

Mr. Ahmadinejad said Iran would not repeat its recent offer to send part of its stockpile out of Iran for enrichment. The accord, supported by Brazil and Turkey, was designed to break the deadlock over its nuclear program, according to Iran.

While Ahmadinejad is correct in that he is receiving international support, it is mainly from one source: Russia and her puppets. Russia is very supportive of Iran, and they should be because they are a huge financial supporter for Iran and they are a source of intelligence for the technology needed as well.

“The Tehran declaration provided an opportunity for the United States government and its allies. We had hoped and we are still hopeful that they use the opportunity well,” Mr. Ahmadinejad said. “I must say opportunities like this will not be repeated again.”

He added: “We were thinking that the United States President Barack Obama would make certain changes in the United States policies. We don’t say that we are hopeless. We hope that he can actually get over the present conditions in the time that remains. We are ready for dialogue within the frame of justice and respect.”

The United States contends Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, while Iran argues its nuclear program is peaceful.

Mr. Putin, speaking at the conference, said sanctions should not be “excessive” but gave no details on whether Russia would change its mind on the vote. He called Iran’s nuclear program peaceful, a characterization with which Washington disagrees.

“I hold the opinion that this resolution should not be unnecessary, should not put Iran’s leadership or the Iranian people into difficulty,” Mr. Putin said.

But hasn’t Turkey been a long-time ally with the United States? Yes, but they have also been at the disposal of regional hyper-power Russia. And, while Russia has been resorting to its old ways of business, they have been helping give Turkey a voice of their own.

Turkey is seen increasingly in Washington as “running around the region doing things that are at cross-purposes to what the big powers in the region want,” said Steven A. Cook, a scholar with the Council on Foreign Relations. The question being asked, he said, is “How do we keep the Turks in their lane?”

From Turkey’s perspective, however, it is simply finding its footing in its own backyard, a troubled region that has been in turmoil for years, in part as a result of American policy making. Turkey has also been frustrated in its longstanding desire to join the European Union.

“The Americans, no matter what they say, cannot get used to a new world where regional powers want to have a say in regional and global politics,” said Soli Ozel, a professor of international relations at Bilgi University in Istanbul. “This is our neighborhood, and we don’t want trouble. The Americans create havoc, and we are left holding the bag.”

Turkey’s rise as a regional power may seem sudden, but it has been evolving for years, since the end of the cold war, when the world was a simple alignment of black and white and Turkey, a Muslim democracy founded in 1923, was a junior partner in the American camp.

Twenty years later, the map has been redrawn. Turkey is now a vibrant, competitive democracy with an economy that would rank as the sixth largest in Europe. Unlike Jordan and Egypt, which rely heavily on American aid, it is financially independent of the United States. And, paradoxically, its democracy has created some problems with Washington: Members of Mr. Erdogan’s own party defected in 2003, for example, voting not to allow the Americans to attack Iraq from Turkish territory.

The one thing to remember is that while regional power maps are being redrawn, Russia is holding the pen and orchestrating everything.

The Threat of Disarming America

by

“No good decision was ever made in a swivel chair.” – Gen. Patton

When you take a look at the threat level from rogue nations – N. Korea and Iran – it is alarming that the current administration would even humor the idea of backing down on its nuclear presence. However, the same energy that carried health care reform will, and has already begun to see the ill effects of current talks with nations like Russia.

As Iran prepares for an upcoming conference on nuclear disarmament, N. Korea is openly committed to furthering their nuclear status. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that they have “between one and six nuclear weapons.” In the same speech, Clinton says that “We will not unilaterally disarm. We will maintain our nuclear deterrent.” A mixed signal within the administration as Obama seems hard pressed to formulate a new nuclear weapons policy that would, in some eyes, disarm America. It is no secret that the current stockpile of nuclear weapons in America is old and technologically outdated.

”The United States is trying to say, ‘Look, let’s keep the bargain where all of the rest of the world agrees not to get nuclear weapons and to work with us to keep nuclear weapons from terrorists and other states, because we are keeping our side of the bargain. We are doing everything we can to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and reduce the number of nuclear weapons.’”

That may be what is said, but what is being heard is another story. What it says to countries like Iran and N. Korea is that we don’t want you to have nukes, and while we will still maintain our outdated weapons at a lesser level, you in turn will agree that you will not further your acquiescence of nuclear weapons. While it is easy to make accusations with a statement like that, it is in some ways beginning to take shape in that manner.

Our side of the bargainis demonstrated with the nuclear talks with Russia, in the hopes that they would take the side of the U.S. in sanctions against Iran. However, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev sees things differently. Although he agreed that nations should not “turn a blind eye” to Iran’s nuclear defiance, he indicated that Russia would not support sanctions that would punish Iran’s people or encourage regime change. He told reporters in Prague, where he and Obama signed an arms control agreement on nuclear weapons, that: “Let me put it straightforward. I have outlined our limits for such sanctions.”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s outright defiance toward sanctions, has created what some are calling diplomatic foot-dragging, while he continues to take a strong stance on the direction and purpose as to Iran’s nuclear efforts. But, only time will tell after Tehran holds it’s international conference of nuclear disarmament on April 17th and 18th, where it is said that Iran “does not consider legitimate the possession of nuclear weapons and other [forms of] weapons of mass destruction by any country,” and adding that Tehran believed in a world free of such weapons.

With noise like that coming out of Tehran, it is hard to understand their stance when they make statements that, “If America makes a crazy move, its interests will be endangered by Iran’s allies around the globe.”

Change in Iranian Dictatorship

by

Iran has been going through a political change. As to what extent, it is hard to say other than the fact there are some changes taking place. At the forefront is the Revolutionary Guard and how aggressive they have been at protecting and advancing the notion of a nuclear weaponized Iran. While it has been no secret, Iran is persuing nuclear weapons and they are open about their efforts and the actions they will take to achieve them.

WSJ – Iran’s Emerging Military Dictatorship

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controlled Tehran with the help of tens of thousands of club-wielding street fighters shipped in from all over the country. Opposition marchers, confined to the northern part of the city, were locked into hit-and-run battles with the regime’s professional goons. An opposition attempt at storming the Evin Prison, where more than 3,000 dissidents are being tortured, did not materialize. The would-be liberators failed to break a ring of steel the IRGC threw around the sprawling compound.

With the Internet shut down and foreign radio broadcasts jammed, the regime imposed its own version of events. State television showed large crowds chanting “Death to America” while marching in front of giant portraits of the Supreme Leader.

And yet, despite all of this, Mr. Khamenei’s message thanking the pro-regime marchers after the “glorious events of the day” had a surprisingly subdued tone. He has reason to feel unhappy.

For the first time the regime had to transform Tehran into a sealed citadel with checkpoints at all points of entry. The IRGC was in total control. Code-named “Simorgh,” after a bird in Persian mythology, its operation created an atmosphere of war in the divided city. Warned that his life may be in danger, Mr. Khamenei was forced to watch the events on TV rather than take his usual personal tour.

To ensure control of Tehran, the regime had to abandon plans for celebrations in other parts of the country. Only 20% of Iranian towns and cities and less than 9% of villages had the privilege of marking the anniversary of the revolution.

The transformation of the Khomeinist regime from theological despotism into military dictatorship started almost a decade ago. And as a keen student of Islamic tradition, Mr. Khamenei must know that history is repeating itself.

Clinton Says Offer To Iran Will Not Change

by

Tensions, to say the least, have escalated recently as U.S. Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton tells Iran that there will be no changes to the offer placed before them about their nuclear program. This is the same proposal that was introduced as they agreed to in principle at earlier talks.

VOA News – Clinton: Nuclear Offer to Iran Will Not Change

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says there will be no changes to an international offer to end the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program by having its low-grade uranium processed and enriched abroad. That proposal is still being considered by the government in Tehran.

Secretary of State Clinton says it is time for Iran to accept the U.N-backed nuclear fuel deal. “This is a pivotal moment for Iran. Acceptance fully of this proposal which we have put forth and which we are unified behind would be a good indication that Iran does not wish to be isolated and does wish to cooperate with the international community and fulfill their international responsibilities,” she said.

While the International Atomic Energy Agency remains in contact with Iran to answer its questions about the agreement, Clinton says the United States, Russia, France, China, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union will not accept any modifications to its terms.

“We urge Iran to accept the agreement as proposed. Because we are not altering it. It is the proposal that they agreed to in principal, so that we can move forward and work with Iran on a full range of issues including, but not limited to, their nuclear program,” she said.

Russia Calls For Restraint After Iranian Missile Tests

by

Tensions are rising in and around Iran over their recent missile test-fires, both long and short-range. Also, there is new concern regarding the new discovery of a secret uranium enrichment plant.

The tests come as the Islamic Republic started large-scale missile drills on Sunday.

Many see this as a test for United States President Barack Obama as he has recently announced that he would not further the Bush-era missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. Others see this as a test for Russia to extend their strong arm in the region and put the pressure on Iran.

Certainly the pressure will be felt as Russia is calling for “restraint.”

“This is not illegal under any international agreements, but of course when missile launches are accompanied by an unresolved situation around Iran’s nuclear program, this concerns us,” Sergei Lavrov said after a meeting with his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki.

While there is great concern internationally, there is a good deal of concern from Russia as they call for more sanctions. Mikhail Margelov, head of Russia’s upper house’s international affairs committee, said although Moscow does not believe in the effectiveness of sanctions, “in some situations, sanctions become inevitable.” He also stressed the importance of the “signal that they will send to the Iranian leadership.”

In an address to professors and students at the University of Pennsylvania, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said:

“Sanctions are not the best way to deal successfully with Iran, but if we run out of all other options, we could launch sanctions based on international law.”

Iran is already under three sets of UN Security Council sanctions over its failure to stop uranium enrichment. Enrichment seen globally as a means of weapons production.

Decision Over Missile Defense System A Technological Reality

by

President Barack Obama announced on Thursday that the United States would be shelving the proposal for a European missile defense shield. The proposal would have placed radar systems and interceptor missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia had repeatedly expressed their disapproval over the defense shield, arguing that it would have interfered with the systems that were already in place.

Immediately following the announcement, criticism from many sides voiced their opinions. Everything from how Obama caved to Russian pressures, to how America was abandoning its allies and their interests. Among the criticism came a defense of the decision by the Department of Defense.

In defense, they offered a four-phased agenda that would provide a higher level of protection than the previous plan proposed under the Bush administration. The previous plan would have offered interceptor missiles that had yet to be built and tested, while the four-phased plan would allow the defense system to evolve “as the Iranian threat potentially evolves.”

John Isaacs, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation said:

“The decision to revamp the missile defense plan in Europe is based on technological reality rather than rigid ideology. The Obama administration’s proposal is a better choice for U.S. And European security.”

The technological reality is that Iran does not possess the intermediate or intercontinental missiles that the Bush plan would have defended against. However, it is argued that they would not have capabilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear capabilities until 2015.

It is no secret that Iran is pursuing nuclear studies. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to press the issue that it is for the sole purpose of providing nuclear energy, and not for nuclear arms. But, according to a secret report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran does have the ability for a nuclear weapon and have been working on a missile system capable of carrying it.

This decision comes before a summit next week where Obama will be meeting with Medvedev, and weeks before Obama sits down with Ahmadinejad.