It’s over, right? I mean, now that the Iowa caucus is over, done, and decided, doesn’t that mean it’s over?
Not so fast. Iowa is just the beginning of things to come.
Before we get ahead of ourselves, how did Iowa play out?
It was almost fitting for a tall tale. Or, a modern day David versus Goliath if you will.
All the Trump’s men, and all the Trump’s polls couldn’t propel him to an assured victory in Iowa.
For days and weeks leading up to the caucus Donald Trump was the for sure victor. But there’s one little party of the equation he forgot. Just because you are a larger than life figure, who can bring in huge crowds, and you do well in the polls, does not mean you’ll win.
That’s where Ted Cruz out-worked him. Ted understands that this is about the people. He went to every county speaking to small groups and connecting on a personal level.
Why didn’t any of that factor into the polls? Simple. Cruz and his supporters were out working and campaigning. They didn’t have time for, and really didn’t care for poll numbers.
What did all of it lead to? Victory in the coveted Iowa caucus.
Sure, Trump came in second and Rubio came in third. But it’s the hope of every campaign to carry the momentum from Iowa and into the next states.
Ideally, Cruz would love for momentum to be on his side to have a good showing in New Hampshire. But there are two other candidates to keep an eye on, Trump and Rubio.
Rubio is thought of as the wild card in the race, but he stands a good chance at placing first or second. Trump on the other hand really needs a win for his corner to justify continuing.
Trump is relying on large crowds and high poll numbers to keep him going. However, after coming in second, behind his Iowan rival, he is likely to adjust his strategy. Then again, maybe this is part of the ‘at of the deal,’ to take things so far past where people think it should go and then back off just enough to get it right where you wanted originally.
Trump had played both hands of the deck. When he first started campaigning he played mister nice guy, and as Cruz proved to be a real threat he became the attack dog. It is likely he will back off and pay mister nice guy again because in his heart he knows that side worked better for him.
So what about that wildcard Rubio and his Marcomentum? Well, he cannot be discounted as he’s viewed as the establishment choice. And, based off of the data from the votes for Rubio versus the other candidates, he very well could have came in second putting Trump in third. Had this happened, it’s hard to see s path forward for him to continue.
What can we expect going into New Hampshire? Honestly, the way this entire election cycle has gone, it’s difficult to determine. Momentum could favor Cruz. But given the surge from Rubio, he could jump ahead. However, Trump has been polling well and could likely clinch the top spot. Again, the way things have played out this cycle, who knows.
Guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
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