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Independent Divide and the Ohio Quinnipiac Poll

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There has been a lot of buzz about the polls lately. Rightly so considering the election is only 40 days away. So, all the attention is being put on those ‘swing states’ which will be the deciding factor. The other thing to consider is the Independent voter. They are the ones who tend to be the decision maker in those swing states. So what’s all the hype about the Quinnipiac poll from Ohio? First thing, is that the majority of polling centers tend to favor Democrats. And there is no denying that Quinnipiac favored Democrats this go around.

So, it got me wondering how they were able to post a 10 point lead for Obama. Without trying to get too technical, let’s try to break their numbers down, all the while leaving in the fact that they weighted it in favor of Democrats. If you want to see their numbers, you can find them HERE. (TIP: You have to look at the last page of data.)

The amount of likely voters polled: 1162

  • Republicans 26% (302)
  • Democrats 35% (406)
  • Independents 35% (406)
  • Other 4% (46)

When questioned if the election were to be held today: (with a 3% margin of error)

  • Obama 53% (615)
  • Romney 43% (499)
  • Other 4% (46)

Now, assuming that Republicans and Democrats vote 100% with party affiliation, it comes down to the Independent voters. But what about the Others? They’re a wash. So, in hypothetical terms, Independent voters are virtually tied. Doing the hypothetical math, Obama would have 609 votes to 505 for Romney. Compared to how they would vote during this poll, there is a 6 point offset between the actual and the hypothetical. So, what happens when you calculate that into the equation?

Here is the Independent divide:

  • Obama 51%
  • Romney 48%

Taking into account the 3% margin of error, Ohio is a virtual tie between the two. This is all based off the numbers from the Quinnipiac poll. A poll that was weighted in favor of Democrat voters. So, why is it this way? It’s politics man. Politics. There is a degree of psychology that plays into it also. That my friend is left to the media to spin how they please.